Chinese Medical Sciences Journal ›› 2022, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 181-194.doi: 10.24920/004118

• Scientific Data Sharing and Reuse:Original Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Global and Regional Trends and Projections of Infective Endocarditis-Associated Disease Burden and Attributable Risk Factors from 1990 to 2030

Lijin Lin1, 3, Yemao Liu2, 3, 4, Juanjuan Qin1, 3, Fang Lei3, 5, Wenxin Wang1, 3, Xuewei Huang1, 3, Weifang Liu3, 5, Xingyuan Zhang3, 5, Zhigang She1, 3, Peng Zhang3, 5, Xiaojing Zhang3, 5, Zhaoxia Jin2, 4, *(), Hongliang Li1, 3, *()   

  1. 1Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430060, China
    2Department of Cardiovascular, Huanggang Central Hospital, Huanggang, Hubei Province, 438021 China
    3Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
    4Huanggang Institute of Translational Medicine, Huanggang, Hubei Province, 438802 China
    5School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
  • Received:2022-06-02 Accepted:2022-08-30 Published:2022-09-30 Online:2022-09-26
  • Contact: Zhaoxia Jin,Hongliang Li E-mail:jinzhaoxia@hgyy.org.cn;lihl@whu.edu.cn

Objective To forecast the future burden and its attributable risk factors of infective endocarditis (IE).
Method We analyzed the disease burden of IE and its risk factors from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database and projected the disease burden from 2020 to 2030 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.
Results By 2030, the incidence of IE will increase uncontrollably on a global scale, with developed countries having the largest number of cases and developing countries experiencing the fastest growth. The affected population will be predominantly males, but the gender gap will narrow. The elderly in high-income countries will bear the greatest burden, with a gradual shift to middle-income countries. The incidence of IE in countries with middle/high-middle social-demographic indicators (SDI) will surpass that of high SDI countries. In China, the incidence rate and the number of IE will reach 18.07 per 100,000 and 451,596 in 2030, respectively. IE-associated deaths and heart failure will continue to impose a significant burden on society, the burden on women will increase and surpass that on men, and the elderly in high-SDI countries will bear the heaviest burden. High systolic blood pressure has become the primary risk factor for IE-related death.
Conclusions This study provides comprehensive analyses of the disease burden and risk factors of IE worldwide over the next decade. The IE-associated incidence will increase in the future and the death and heart failure burden will not be appropriately controlled. Gender, age, regional, and country heterogeneity should be taken seriously to facilitate in making effective strategies for lowering the IE disease burden.

Key words: infective endocarditis, disease burden, risk factors, Bayesian age-period-cohort model, projection

Funding:

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