Chinese Medical Sciences Journal ›› 2022, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 181-194.doi: 10.24920/004118
• Scientific Data Sharing and Reuse:Original Article • Previous Articles Next Articles
Lijin Lin1, 3, Yemao Liu2, 3, 4, Juanjuan Qin1, 3, Fang Lei3, 5, Wenxin Wang1, 3, Xuewei Huang1, 3, Weifang Liu3, 5, Xingyuan Zhang3, 5, Zhigang She1, 3, Peng Zhang3, 5, Xiaojing Zhang3, 5, Zhaoxia Jin2, 4, *(), Hongliang Li1, 3, *()
Received:
2022-06-02
Accepted:
2022-08-30
Published:
2022-09-30
Online:
2022-09-26
Contact:
Zhaoxia Jin,Hongliang Li
E-mail:jinzhaoxia@hgyy.org.cn;lihl@whu.edu.cn
Lijin Lin, Yemao Liu, Juanjuan Qin, Fang Lei, Wenxin Wang, Xuewei Huang, Weifang Liu, Xingyuan Zhang, Zhigang She, Peng Zhang, Xiaojing Zhang, Zhaoxia Jin, Hongliang Li. Global and Regional Trends and Projections of Infective Endocarditis-Associated Disease Burden and Attributable Risk Factors from 1990 to 2030[J].Chinese Medical Sciences Journal, 2022, 37(3): 181-194.
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Table 1.
Age-standardized rates (ASR), estimated average percentage changes (EAPC) of ASR, death, and heart failure prevalence due to IE in 2020 and 2030."
Characteristics | Incidence | Death | Heart failure | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ASR per 105 in 2020 n (95% UI) | ASR per 105 in 2030 n (95% UI) | EAPC of ASR 2020 to 2030 n (95% CI) | ASR per 105 in 2020 n (95% UI) | ASR per 105 in 2030 n (95% UI) | EAPC of ASR 2020 to 2030 n (95% CI) | ASR per 105 in 2020 n (95% UI) | ASR per 105 in 2030 n (95% UI) | EAPC of ASR 2020 to 2030 n (95% CI) | |||
Overall | |||||||||||
Global | 14.07 (13.65, 14.48) | 16.33 (12.56, 20.10) | 1.50 (1.46, 1.54) | 0.88 (0.86, 0.91) | 0.83 (0.61, 1.06) | -0.58 (-0.59, -0.57) | 4.53 (4.45, 4.60) | 4.34 (3.59, 5.09) | -0.42 (-0.46, -0.37) | ||
Sex | |||||||||||
Male | 16.61 (16.15, 17.07) | 19.46 (15.09, 23.83) | 1.60 (1.56, 1.63) | 0.94 (0.92, 0.96) | 0.86 (0.65, 1.07) | -0.90 (-0.91, -0.88) | 4.21 (4.14, 4.29) | 4.07 (3.31, 4.83) | -0.34 (-0.38, -0.30) | ||
Female | 11.82 (11.48, 12.17) | 13.68 (10.49, 16.88) | 1.47 (1.43, 1.51) | 0.79 (0.77, 0.82) | 0.74 (0.50, 0.99) | -0.62 (-0.63, -0.61) | 4.75 (4.67, 4.83) | 4.62 (3.77, 5.46) | -0.28 (-0.32, -0.24) | ||
SDI | |||||||||||
Low SDI | 7.51 (7.29, 7.74) | 8.56 (3.97, 13.14) | 1.31 (1.30, 1.32) | 0.79 (0.76, 0.82) | 0.80 (0.60, 1.00) | 0.10 (0.09, 0.11) | 2.01 (1.96, 2.07) | 2.07 (1.61, 2.52) | 0.27 (0.26, 0.28) | ||
Low-middle SDI | 9.60 (9.45, 9.76) | 12.32 (9.61, 15.03) | 2.52 (2.50, 2.55) | 0.67 (0.65, 0.69) | 0.70 (0.52, 0.89) | 0.48 (0.47, 0.49) | 1.56 (1.52, 1.60) | 1.65 (1.32, 1.99) | 0.59 (0.57, 0.60) | ||
Middle SDI | 13.59 (13.16, 14.03) | 16.72 (10.76, 22.68) | 2.10 (2.05, 2.14) | 0.61 (0.60, 0.63) | 0.58 (0.42, 0.74) | -0.49 (-0.51, -0.47) | 3.30 (3.24, 3.35) | 3.40 (2.82, 3.99) | 0.32 (0.30, 0.34) | ||
High-middle SDI | 16.12 (15.63, 16.60) | 18.60 (14.06, 23.14) | 1.45 (1.40, 1.49) | 0.69 (0.67, 0.71) | 0.58 (0.43, 0.72) | -1.81 (-1.84, -1.78) | 3.10 (3.03, 3.16) | 3.15 (2.35, 3.95) | 0.16 (0.11, 0.21) | ||
High SDI | 16.15 (15.56, 16.74) | 17.84 (13.30, 22.38) | 1.00 (0.96, 1.04) | 1.14 (1.10, 1.18) | 1.03 (0.43, 1.63) | -0.99 (-0.99, -0.99) | 8.52 (8.28, 8.76) | 7.97 (5.97, 9.96) | -0.67 (-0.69, -0.65) | ||
Regions | |||||||||||
Western Sub-Saharan Africa | 9.41 (9.19, 9.63) | 10.44 (7.74, 13.14) | 1.04 (1.04, 1.05) | 0.78 (0.74, 0.83) | 0.70 (0.38, 1.03) | -1.06 (-1.06, -1.06) | 2.51 (2.42, 2.60) | 2.57 (1.92, 3.21) | 0.22 (0.21, 0.22) | ||
Oceania | 12.03 (11.35, 12.70) | 13.18 (9.07, 17.29) | 0.92 (0.91, 0.93) | 1.66 (1.44, 1.89) | 1.76 (0.89, 2.64) | 0.60 (0.60, 0.60) | 4.35 (3.86, 4.85) | 4.23 (2.40, 6.07) | -0.28 (-0.30, -0.25) | ||
Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa | 6.96 (6.79, 7.14) | 8.29 (5.95, 10.63) | 1.76 (1.75, 1.77) | 0.90 (0.86, 0.95) | 0.87 (0.60, 1.14) | -0.33 (-0.35, -0.31) | 3.76 (3.64, 3.89) | 3.87 (2.92, 4.82) | 0.27 (0.27, 0.28) | ||
South Asia | 7.28 (7.16, 7.41) | 8.78 (6.55, 11.01) | 1.89 (1.88, 1.90) | 0.64 (0.62, 0.66) | 0.68 (0.49, 0.87) | 0.57 (0.57, 0.57) | 1.31 (1.27, 1.34) | 1.34 (1.05, 1.62) | 0.23 (0.22, 0.23) | ||
Central Sub-Saharan Africa | 7.06 (6.83, 7.29) | 8.33 (6.06, 10.60) | 1.67 (1.66, 1.67) | 1.00 (0.93, 1.07) | 0.99 (0.64, 1.33) | -0.08 (-0.09, -0.07) | 2.63 (2.48, 2.77) | 2.75 (1.92, 3.57) | 0.46 (0.46, 0.46) | ||
Tropical Latin America | 22.45 (20.73, 24.18) | 32.97 (9.10, 56.84) | 3.92 (3.87, 3.97) | 1.05 (1.00, 1.09) | 0.93 (0.63, 1.23) | -1.15 (-1.19, -1.11) | 2.39 (2.31, 2.48) | 2.47 (1.87, 3.08) | 0.33 (0.30, 0.35) | ||
Southern Sub-Saharan Africa | 8.21 (7.93, 8.49) | 9.58 (6.85, 12.30) | 1.55 (1.54, 1.55) | 0.78 (0.70, 0.86) | 0.73 (0.16, 1.30) | -0.72 (-0.74, -0.69) | 4.23 (4.04, 4.42) | 4.18 (3.03, 5.33) | -0.13 (-0.13, -0.12) | ||
Southeast Asia | 13.04 (12.82, 13.25) | 14.60 (12.02, 17.18) | 1.14 (1.12, 1.16) | 1.28 (1.24, 1.32) | 1.26 (0.90, 1.63) | -0.16 (-0.18, -0.13) | 8.95 (8.78, 9.12) | 9.35 (7.65, 11.04) | 0.43 (0.40, 0.47) | ||
North Africa and Middle East | 15.61 (15.37, 15.86) | 18.31 (14.76, 21.85) | 1.60 (1.60, 1.61) | 0.65 (0.62, 0.67) | 0.58 (0.42, 0.74) | -1.10 (-1.11, -1.09) | 2.29 (2.22, 2.36) | 2.25 (1.60, 2.91) | -0.17 (-0.19, -0.15) | ||
Central Latin America | 17.60 (17.00, 18.19) | 25.29 (16.48, 34.10) | 3.69 (3.66, 3.72) | 0.54 (0.51, 0.57) | 0.53 (0.34, 0.72) | -0.21 (-0.22, -0.19) | 1.80 (1.73, 1.86) | 1.84 (1.38, 2.30) | 0.21 (0.20, 0.23) | ||
Central Asia | 6.45 (6.24, 6.66) | 7.24 (5.41, 9.08) | 1.16 (1.15, 1.18) | 0.33 (0.30, 0.37) | 0.32 (0.17, 0.47) | -0.37 (-0.40, -0.34) | 0.31 (0.28, 0.35) | 0.30 (0.17, 0.42) | -0.57 (-0.57, -0.57) | ||
Caribbean | 18.91 (18.39, 19.44) | 20.78 (15.88, 25.67) | 0.95 (0.93, 0.96) | 0.89 (0.82, 0.96) | 0.93 (0.59, 1.26) | 0.39 (0.39, 0.40) | 1.78 (1.67, 1.88) | 1.75 (1.20, 2.31) | -0.12 (-0.12, -0.12) | ||
Andean Latin America | 13.84 (13.44, 14.25) | 15.99 (12.14, 19.84) | 1.45 (1.45, 1.46) | 0.57 (0.53, 0.62) | 0.51 (0.32, 0.71) | -1.09 (-1.10, -1.08) | 2.68 (2.54, 2.82) | 3.01 (2.09, 3.92) | 1.14 (1.10, 1.19) | ||
Southern Latin America | 20.77 (20.25, 21.28) | 24.31 (18.65, 29.97) | 1.59 (1.57, 1.60) | 1.83 (1.73, 1.93) | 1.79 (1.08, 2.50) | -0.22 (-0.23, -0.21) | 6.50 (6.28, 6.72) | 6.72 (5.08, 8.36) | 0.34 (0.26, 0.42) | ||
Eastern Europe | 15.55 (15.13, 15.98) | 16.66 (9.97, 23.34) | 0.69 (0.67, 0.71) | 0.78 (0.71, 0.84) | 0.70 (-0.06, 1.46) | -1.00 (-1.02, -0.97) | 0.77 (0.74, 0.81) | 0.75 (0.52, 0.97) | -0.38 (-0.39, -0.37) | ||
East Asia | 15.65 (14.83, 16.47) | 18.82 (12.07, 25.57) | 1.87 (1.81, 1.92) | 0.28 (0.26, 0.29) | 0.24 (0.05, 0.42) | -1.56 (-1.58, -1.55) | 2.15 (2.10, 2.20) | 2.23 (1.78, 2.69) | 0.38 (0.35, 0.41) | ||
Central Europe | 12.23 (11.92, 12.53) | 12.99 (9.63, 16.35) | 0.61 (0.57, 0.64) | 0.48 (0.45, 0.51) | 0.44 (0.27, 0.62) | -0.74 (-0.76, -0.71) | 1.16 (1.10, 1.22) | 1.11 (0.66, 1.56) | -0.42 (-0.43, -0.41) | ||
Australasia | 16.31 (15.81, 16.81) | 16.09 (12.18, 20.00) | -0.14 (-0.15, -0.12) | 0.82 (0.75, 0.89) | 0.77 (0.44, 1.09) | -0.69 (-0.69, -0.68) | 7.97 (7.55, 8.39) | 8.00 (3.17, 12.83) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.04) | ||
Western Europe | 18.15 (17.61, 18.68) | 19.55 (15.12, 23.98) | 0.75 (0.70, 0.79) | 1.25 (1.19, 1.30) | 1.04 (0.42, 1.65) | -1.83 (-1.85, -1.80) | 7.26 (7.12, 7.40) | 7.38 (5.84, 8.93) | 0.16 (0.16, 0.16) | ||
High-income North America | 14.83 (13.95, 15.72) | 16.87 (10.86, 22.89) | 1.30 (1.26, 1.34) | 1.35 (1.26, 1.44) | 1.35 (-0.21, 2.92) | -0.01 (-0.02, -0.01) | 11.55 (10.95, 12.16) | 9.92 (5.73, 14.12) | -1.52 (-1.54, -1.50) | ||
High-income Asia Pacific | 12.44 (11.95, 12.94) | 13.06 (9.42, 16.69) | 0.48 (0.44, 0.52) | 0.73 (0.69, 0.76) | 0.67 (0.29, 1.05) | -0.76 (-0.78, -0.74) | 6.93 (6.71, 7.16) | 6.56 (4.55, 8.58) | -0.54 (-0.55, -0.53) |
Figure 1.
IE-related ASIRs and their EAPCs in global, SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions from 1990 to 2030. (A) ASIRs in different SDI regions from 1990 to 2030; (B) death cases in SDI regions from 1990 to 2030; (C) ASIRs in global, SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions in 1990, 2019, and 2030; (D) the EAPCs of IE-related ASIRs in global, SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions between 1990-2019 and 2020-2030. IE: infective endocarditis; ASIR: age-standardized incidence rates; SDI: socio-demographic index; EAPC: estimated annual percentage change; GBD: global burden of disease."
Figure 2.
IE-related ASIRs and their EAPCs by sex in global, SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions from 1990 to 2030. (A) IE-related ASIRs in different SDI regions by males (the left) and females (the right) from 1990 to 2030; (B) male to female ratio of IE-related ASIRs in SDI regions from 1990 to 2030; (C) EAPCs of IE-related ASIRs in SDI regions between 1990-2019 (the left) and 2020-2030 (the right); (D) EAPCs of IE-related ASIRs in GBD regions in 2020-2030. IE: infective endocarditis; ASIR: age-standardized incidence rate; SDI: socio-demographic index; EAPC: estimated annual percentage change; GBD: global burden of disease."
Figure 3.
IE-related ASIRs, death cases, and their compositions in all age groups in 1990, 2019, and 2030. (A)-(F) IE-related incident cases and ASIRs in 0-95+ years groups (5 years an interval) in 1990, 2019, and 2030 in global and SDI regions; (G) the age composition of (0-24, 25-49, 50-74, and 75+ years old) in incident cases of IE in global, SDI regions, and 21 GBD regions in 2019 (the left) and 2030 (the right). IE: infective endocarditis; ASIR: age-standardized incidence rates; SDI: socio-demographic index; GBD: global burden of disease."
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