A predictive model for heart failure in patients with hypertension and persistent atrial fibrillation: A retrospective single-center study

Wang Qun-Yuan; Pan Cui-Ping; Zou Yu-Ting; Bai Jia-Qi; Zhang Ming-Lei; Liu Yi-Ning; Jin Yu-Feng; Li Rui-Zhe; Li Zong-Bin

doi:10.1016/j.cmsj.2026.07.001

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A predictive model for heart failure in patients with hypertension and persistent atrial fibrillation: A retrospective single-center study

中国医学科学杂志 2026年41卷第2期页码：55-61

Research Article | Updated：2026-10-16

- A predictive model for heart failure in patients with hypertension and persistent atrial fibrillation: A retrospective single-center study
- Affiliations：
  
  The Fifth School of Clinical Medicine, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230000, China
  Senior Department of Cardiology, The Sixth Medical Center of Chinese People's Liberation Army General Hospital, Beijing 100037, China
  School of Medicine, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China
  Chinese People's Liberation Army Medical College, Beijing 100853, China
- Author bio：
  
  Corresponding author. E-mail: lizongbin@301hospital.com.cn (Z.B. Li) .
- Funds：
  
  the Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research(CFH2022-1G-5071);the Hygiene and Health Development Scientific Research Fostering Plan of Haidian District of Beijing.(HP2021-03-80602)
- DOI：10.1016/j.cmsj.2026.07.001
  中图分类号：
- 纸质出版：2026-06
- Accepted：
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Wang Qun-Yuan, Pan Cui-Ping, Zou Yu-Ting, 等. A predictive model for heart failure in patients with hypertension and persistent atrial fibrillation: A retrospective single-center study[J]. 中国医学科学杂志, 2026,41(2):55-61.

Wang Qun-Yuan, Pan Cui-Ping, Zou Yu-Ting, et al. A predictive model for heart failure in patients with hypertension and persistent atrial fibrillation: A retrospective single-center study[J]. Chinese Medical Sciences Journal, 2026, 41(2): 55-61.
Wang Qun-Yuan, Pan Cui-Ping, Zou Yu-Ting, 等. A predictive model for heart failure in patients with hypertension and persistent atrial fibrillation: A retrospective single-center study[J]. 中国医学科学杂志, 2026,41(2):55-61. DOI： 10.1016/j.cmsj.2026.07.001.

Wang Qun-Yuan, Pan Cui-Ping, Zou Yu-Ting, et al. A predictive model for heart failure in patients with hypertension and persistent atrial fibrillation: A retrospective single-center study[J]. Chinese Medical Sciences Journal, 2026, 41(2): 55-61. DOI： 10.1016/j.cmsj.2026.07.001.

摘要

Abstract

Objective:

This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive nomogram for heart failure in patients with hypertension and persistent atrial fibrillation (HT-PeAF).

Methods:

We retrospectively analyzed clinical data from patients with HT-PeAF hospitalized at Chinese People's Liberation Army General Hospital between 2010 and 2019. Predictive variables were selected based on multivariable logistic regression analysis and clinical relevance

which were then incorporated into a clinical nomogram. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discrimination

the Hosmer-Lemeshow test for calibration

and decision curve analysis for clinical utility.

Results:

Of the 395 enrolled patients

151 experienced heart failure. Nine predictive variables were identified: prior catheter ablation

low-density lipoprotein cholesterol

hemoglobin

uric acid

creatinine

total bilirubin

fasting blood glucose

red blood cell distribution width

and coronary artery disease. The nomogram demonstrated good discriminative ability (AUC = 0.77

95%

: 0.72-0.81)

good calibration (

= 0.44)

and favorable clinical utility.

Conclusion:

This accessible tool facilitates individualized risk stratification for heart failure in HT-PeAF patients

though prospective validation in multicenter Asian cohorts is warranted.

关键词

Keywords

references

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