基于机器学习算法的前列腺癌风险预测和在线计算研究

王淳; 常琴雪; 王肖萌; 王柯云; 王鹤; 崔壮; 李长平

doi:10.24920/004086

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基于机器学习算法的前列腺癌风险预测和在线计算研究

中国医学科学杂志（英文版） 2022年37卷第3期页码：210-217

Scientific Data Sharing and Reuse:Original Article | Updated：2024-04-10

- 基于机器学习算法的前列腺癌风险预测和在线计算研究
- Affiliations：
  
  1. 1Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin 300070, China
  2. 2Department of Medical Imaging, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing 100034, China
- Author bio：
  
  *崔壮 zhuangcui417@126.com;
  李长平 changpingli417@126.com
- Funds：
- DOI：10.24920/004086
  中图分类号：
- 收稿日期：2022-03-21，
  
  录用日期：2022-8-24，
  
  网络出版日期：2022-09-20，
  
  纸质出版日期：2022-09-30
- Accepted：
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王淳, 常琴雪, 王肖萌, 等. 基于机器学习算法的前列腺癌风险预测和在线计算研究[J]. 中国医学科学杂志（英文版）, 2022,37(3):210-217.

Chun Wang, Qinxue Chang, Xiaomeng Wang, et al. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction and Online Calculation Based on Machine Learning Algorithm[J]. Chinese medical sciences journal, 2022, 37(3): 210-217.
王淳, 常琴雪, 王肖萌, 等. 基于机器学习算法的前列腺癌风险预测和在线计算研究[J]. 中国医学科学杂志（英文版）, 2022,37(3):210-217. DOI： 10.24920/004086.

Chun Wang, Qinxue Chang, Xiaomeng Wang, et al. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction and Online Calculation Based on Machine Learning Algorithm[J]. Chinese medical sciences journal, 2022, 37(3): 210-217. DOI： 10.24920/004086.

摘要

目的

基于临床常用指标

采用机器学习方法构建前列腺癌风险预测模型

为前列腺癌的早期诊疗提供科学依据

评价人工智能技术在医疗健康数据平台下的应用价值。

方法

对国家临床医学科学数据中心提供的前列腺肿瘤预警数据集预处理后

使用平滑剪切绝对偏差（smoothly clipped absolute deviation

SCAD）算法筛选特征指标。采用随机森林（Radom forest

RF）、支持向量机（support vector machine

SVM）、反向传播（back propagation

BP）神经网络、卷积神经网络（convolutional neural network

CNN）4种模型预测前列腺癌发生风险

其中神经网络模型使用经SMOTE增强后数据拟合。不同模型的预测能力采用受试者操作特性（ROC）曲线下面积（area under the curve

AUC）进行比较。在确定最优模型后

使用Shiny开发前列腺癌风险预测在线平台。

结果

在预测变量中

除活检标本碎组织体积、血游离前列腺特异抗原（fPSA）外

无机磷、甘油三酯、游离钙等临床常用指标与前列腺癌也密切相关。在4种模型中

RF预测效果最好（准确率：96.80%;AUC：0.975

95%

：0.964-0.986）

其次为BP神经网络（准确率：85.36%;AUC：0.892

95%

：0.849-0.934）

SVM（准确率：82.67%;AUC：0.824

95%

：0.805-0.844）与BP神经网络预测效果相近

CNN预测能力最低（准确率：72.37%;AUC：0.724

95%

：0.670-0.779）。基于RF及预测指标成功开发了一种前列腺癌风险预测在线平台。

结论

本研究揭示了医疗信息化平台下传统机器学习方法和基础神经网络模型在疾病风险预测中的应用价值

为疑似前列腺癌并接受穿刺活检人群的前列腺癌预测提出了新思路。此外

开发在线预测系统有助于增强人工智能预测技术的实用性

使医疗应用更为便捷。

Abstract

Objective

To build a prostate cancer (PCa) risk prediction model based on common clinical indicators to provide a theoretical basis for the diagnosis and treatment of PCa and to evaluate the value of artificial intelligence (AI) technology under healthcare data platforms.

Methods

After preprocessing of the data from Population Health Data Archive

smuothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) was used to select features. Random forest (RF)

support vector machine (SVM)

back propagation neural network (BP)

and convolutional neural network (CNN) were used to predict the risk of PCa

among which BP and CNN were used on the enhanced data by SMOTE. The performances of models were compared using area under the curve (AUC) of the receiving operating characteristic curve. After the optimal model was selected

we used the Shiny to develop an online calculator for PCa risk prediction based on predictive indicators.

Results

Inorganic phosphorus

triglycerides

and calcium were closely related to PCa in addition to the volume of fragmented tissue and free prostate-specific antigen (PSA). Among the four models

RF had the best performance in predicting PCa (accuracy: 96.80%; AUC: 0.975

95%

: 0.964-0.986). Followed by BP (accuracy: 85.36%; AUC: 0.892

95%

: 0.849-0.934) and SVM (accuracy: 82.67%; AUC: 0.824

95%

: 0.805-0.844). CNN performed worse (accuracy: 72.37%; AUC: 0.724

95%

: 0.670-0.779). An online platform for PCa risk prediction was developed based on the RF model and the predictive indicators.

Conclusions

This study revealed the application value of traditional machine learning and deep learning models in disease risk prediction under healthcare data platform

proposed new ideas for PCa risk prediction in patients suspected for PCa and had undergone core needle biopsy. Besides

the online calculation may enhance the practicability of AI prediction technology and facilitate medical diagnosis.

关键词

Keywords

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