1990-2030年全球和区域感染性心内膜炎的疾病负担及其归因危险因素的趋势和预测

林立金; 柳叶茂; 秦娟娟; 雷昉; 汪文鑫; 黄学伟; 刘伟芳; 张兴元; 折志刚; 张鹏; 张晓晶; 金朝霞; 李红良

doi:10.24920/004118

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1990-2030年全球和区域感染性心内膜炎的疾病负担及其归因危险因素的趋势和预测

中国医学科学杂志（英文版） 2022年37卷第3期页码：181-194

Scientific Data Sharing and Reuse:Original Article | Updated：2024-04-10

- 1990-2030年全球和区域感染性心内膜炎的疾病负担及其归因危险因素的趋势和预测
- Affiliations：
  
  1. 1Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430060, China
  2. 2Department of Cardiovascular, Huanggang Central Hospital, Huanggang, Hubei Province, 438021 China
  3. 3Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
  4. 4Huanggang Institute of Translational Medicine, Huanggang, Hubei Province, 438802 China
  5. 5School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
- Author bio：
  
  金朝霞 jinzhaoxia@hgyy.org.cn
  *李红良 lihl@whu.edu.cn;
- Funds：
  
  武汉大学的医学腾飞计划(TFJC201800)
- DOI：10.24920/004118
  中图分类号：
- 收稿日期：2022-06-02，
  
  录用日期：2022-8-30，
  
  网络出版日期：2022-09-26，
  
  纸质出版日期：2022-09-30
- Accepted：
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林立金, 柳叶茂, 秦娟娟, 等. 1990-2030年全球和区域感染性心内膜炎的疾病负担及其归因危险因素的趋势和预测[J]. 中国医学科学杂志（英文版）, 2022,37(3):181-194.

Lijin Lin, Yemao Liu, Juanjuan Qin, et al. Global and Regional Trends and Projections of Infective Endocarditis-Associated Disease Burden and Attributable Risk Factors from 1990 to 2030[J]. Chinese medical sciences journal, 2022, 37(3): 181-194.
林立金, 柳叶茂, 秦娟娟, 等. 1990-2030年全球和区域感染性心内膜炎的疾病负担及其归因危险因素的趋势和预测[J]. 中国医学科学杂志（英文版）, 2022,37(3):181-194. DOI： 10.24920/004118.

Lijin Lin, Yemao Liu, Juanjuan Qin, et al. Global and Regional Trends and Projections of Infective Endocarditis-Associated Disease Burden and Attributable Risk Factors from 1990 to 2030[J]. Chinese medical sciences journal, 2022, 37(3): 181-194. DOI： 10.24920/004118.

摘要

目的

预测感染性心内膜炎（Infective endocarditis

IE）未来的疾病负担及其归因危险因素。

方法

我们利用2019年全球疾病负担数据库分析了1990年至2019年IE的疾病负担及其危险因素

并利用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测了2020年至2030年IE的全球疾病负担。

结果

到2030年

全球IE发病率将会不可控制地增加。其中

发展中国家的发病率增长速度最快

发达国家的新发病例数量最高

男性发病率较高

但性别差距将会缩小。高收入国家的老年人的发病负担最重

逐渐向中等收入国家转移。在中/高-中社会人口指数（social-demographic indicators

SDI）国家的发病率将超过高SDI国家。在中国

预计到2030年

IE的年龄标化发病率将达18.07/10万人

而IE患者的数量将达45万人。IE导致的死亡和心力衰竭负担仍然较重

女性的负担将增加并超过男性

而高SDI国家的老年人将承担最严重的疾病负担。高收缩压成为IE相关死亡的主要危险因素。

结论

未来十年全球范围内IE的疾病负担和危险因素分析表明

IE的发病率将会增加

IE相关的死亡和心衰负担的控制将成为严峻问题。应关注IE疾病负担的性别、年龄以及区域和国家的异质性

以便制定降低IE疾病负担的有效策略。

Abstract

Objective

To forecast the future burden and its attributable risk factors of infective endocarditis (IE).

Method

We analyzed the disease burden of IE and its risk factors from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database and projected the disease burden from 2020 to 2030 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results

By 2030

the incidence of IE will increase uncontrollably on a global scale

with developed countries having the largest number of cases and developing countries experiencing the fastest growth. The affected population will be predominantly males

but the gender gap will narrow. The elderly in high-income countries will bear the greatest burden

with a gradual shift to middle-income countries. The incidence of IE in countries with middle/high-middle social-demographic indicators (SDI) will surpass that of high SDI countries. In China

the incidence rate and the number of IE will reach 18.07 per 100

000 and 451

596 in 2030

respectively. IE-associated deaths and heart failure will continue to impose a significant burden on society

the burden on women will increase and surpass that on men

and the elderly in high-SDI countries will bear the heaviest burden. High systolic blood pressure has become the primary risk factor for IE-related death.

Conclusions

This study provides comprehensive analyses of the disease burden and risk factors of IE worldwide over the next decade. The IE-associated incidence will increase in the future and the death and heart failure burden will not be appropriately controlled. Gender

age

regional

and country heterogeneity should be taken seriously to facilitate in making effective strategies for lowering the IE disease burden.

关键词

Keywords

references

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