1990-2030年全球和区域感染性心内膜炎的疾病负担及其归因危险因素的趋势和预测

doi:10.24920/004118

Chinese Medical Sciences Journal ›› 2022, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 181-194.doi: 10.24920/004118

• 科学数据共享与重用: 论著 • 上一篇下一篇

1990-2030年全球和区域感染性心内膜炎的疾病负担及其归因危险因素的趋势和预测

林立金^1,³,柳叶茂^2,^3,⁴,秦娟娟^1,³,雷昉^3,⁵,汪文鑫^1,³,黄学伟^1,³,刘伟芳^3,⁵,张兴元^3,⁵,折志刚^1,³,张鹏^3,⁵,张晓晶^3,⁵,金朝霞^2,^4,^*(),李红良^1,^3,^*()

¹武汉大学人民医院心血管内科,武汉 430060,中国
²黄冈市中心医院心血管内科,黄冈 438000,中国
³武汉大学模式动物研究所,武汉 430071,中国
⁴黄冈市医学转化研究院,黄冈 438000,中国
⁵武汉大学基础医学院,武汉 430071,中国

收稿日期:2022-06-02 接受日期:2022-08-30 出版日期:2022-09-30 发布日期:2022-09-26
通讯作者: 金朝霞,李红良 E-mail:jinzhaoxia@hgyy.org.cn;lihl@whu.edu.cn

Global and Regional Trends and Projections of Infective Endocarditis-Associated Disease Burden and Attributable Risk Factors from 1990 to 2030

Lijin Lin^1,³,Yemao Liu^2,^3,⁴,Juanjuan Qin^1,³,Fang Lei^3,⁵,Wenxin Wang^1,³,Xuewei Huang^1,³,Weifang Liu^3,⁵,Xingyuan Zhang^3,⁵,Zhigang She^1,³,Peng Zhang^3,⁵,Xiaojing Zhang^3,⁵,Zhaoxia Jin^2,^4,^*(),Hongliang Li^1,^3,^*()

¹Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430060, China
²Department of Cardiovascular, Huanggang Central Hospital, Huanggang, Hubei Province, 438021 China
³Institute of Model Animal, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
⁴Huanggang Institute of Translational Medicine, Huanggang, Hubei Province, 438802 China
⁵School of Basic Medical Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China

Received:2022-06-02 Accepted:2022-08-30 Published:2022-09-30 Online:2022-09-26
Contact: Zhaoxia Jin,Hongliang Li E-mail:jinzhaoxia@hgyy.org.cn;lihl@whu.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的预测感染性心内膜炎（Infective endocarditis,IE）未来的疾病负担及其归因危险因素。
方法我们利用2019年全球疾病负担数据库分析了1990年至2019年IE的疾病负担及其危险因素,并利用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测了2020年至2030年IE的全球疾病负担。
结果到2030年,全球IE发病率将会不可控制地增加。其中,发展中国家的发病率增长速度最快,发达国家的新发病例数量最高,男性发病率较高,但性别差距将会缩小。高收入国家的老年人的发病负担最重,逐渐向中等收入国家转移。在中/高-中社会人口指数（social-demographic indicators,SDI）国家的发病率将超过高SDI国家。在中国,预计到2030年,IE的年龄标化发病率将达18.07/10万人,而IE患者的数量将达45万人。IE导致的死亡和心力衰竭负担仍然较重,女性的负担将增加并超过男性,而高SDI国家的老年人将承担最严重的疾病负担。高收缩压成为IE相关死亡的主要危险因素。
结论未来十年全球范围内IE的疾病负担和危险因素分析表明,IE的发病率将会增加,IE相关的死亡和心衰负担的控制将成为严峻问题。应关注IE疾病负担的性别、年龄以及区域和国家的异质性,以便制定降低IE疾病负担的有效策略。

关键词: 感染性心内膜炎, 发病率, 死亡率, 心力衰竭, 贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型, 预测

Abstract:

Objective To forecast the future burden and its attributable risk factors of infective endocarditis (IE).
Method We analyzed the disease burden of IE and its risk factors from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database and projected the disease burden from 2020 to 2030 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.
Results By 2030, the incidence of IE will increase uncontrollably on a global scale, with developed countries having the largest number of cases and developing countries experiencing the fastest growth. The affected population will be predominantly males, but the gender gap will narrow. The elderly in high-income countries will bear the greatest burden, with a gradual shift to middle-income countries. The incidence of IE in countries with middle/high-middle social-demographic indicators (SDI) will surpass that of high SDI countries. In China, the incidence rate and the number of IE will reach 18.07 per 100,000 and 451,596 in 2030, respectively. IE-associated deaths and heart failure will continue to impose a significant burden on society, the burden on women will increase and surpass that on men, and the elderly in high-SDI countries will bear the heaviest burden. High systolic blood pressure has become the primary risk factor for IE-related death.
Conclusions This study provides comprehensive analyses of the disease burden and risk factors of IE worldwide over the next decade. The IE-associated incidence will increase in the future and the death and heart failure burden will not be appropriately controlled. Gender, age, regional, and country heterogeneity should be taken seriously to facilitate in making effective strategies for lowering the IE disease burden.

Key words: infective endocarditis, disease burden, risk factors, Bayesian age-period-cohort model, projection

基金资助: 武汉大学的医学腾飞计划(TFJC201800)

Lijin Lin, Yemao Liu, Juanjuan Qin, Fang Lei, Wenxin Wang, Xuewei Huang, Weifang Liu, Xingyuan Zhang, Zhigang She, Peng Zhang, Xiaojing Zhang, Zhaoxia Jin, Hongliang Li. Global and Regional Trends and Projections of Infective Endocarditis-Associated Disease Burden and Attributable Risk Factors from 1990 to 2030[J].Chinese Medical Sciences Journal, 2022, 37(3): 181-194.

图/表 4

Characteristics	Incidence			Death			Heart failure
Characteristics	ASR per 10⁵ in 2020 n (95% UI)	ASR per 10⁵ in 2030 n (95% UI)	EAPC of ASR 2020 to 2030 n (95% CI)	ASR per 10⁵ in 2020 n (95% UI)	ASR per 10⁵ in 2030 n (95% UI)	EAPC of ASR 2020 to 2030 n (95% CI)	ASR per 10⁵ in 2020 n (95% UI)	ASR per 10⁵ in 2030 n (95% UI)	EAPC of ASR 2020 to 2030 n (95% CI)
Overall
Global	14.07 (13.65, 14.48)	16.33 (12.56, 20.10)	1.50 (1.46, 1.54)	0.88 (0.86, 0.91)	0.83 (0.61, 1.06)	-0.58 (-0.59, -0.57)	4.53 (4.45, 4.60)	4.34 (3.59, 5.09)	-0.42 (-0.46, -0.37)
Sex
Male	16.61 (16.15, 17.07)	19.46 (15.09, 23.83)	1.60 (1.56, 1.63)	0.94 (0.92, 0.96)	0.86 (0.65, 1.07)	-0.90 (-0.91, -0.88)	4.21 (4.14, 4.29)	4.07 (3.31, 4.83)	-0.34 (-0.38, -0.30)
Female	11.82 (11.48, 12.17)	13.68 (10.49, 16.88)	1.47 (1.43, 1.51)	0.79 (0.77, 0.82)	0.74 (0.50, 0.99)	-0.62 (-0.63, -0.61)	4.75 (4.67, 4.83)	4.62 (3.77, 5.46)	-0.28 (-0.32, -0.24)
SDI
Low SDI	7.51 (7.29, 7.74)	8.56 (3.97, 13.14)	1.31 (1.30, 1.32)	0.79 (0.76, 0.82)	0.80 (0.60, 1.00)	0.10 (0.09, 0.11)	2.01 (1.96, 2.07)	2.07 (1.61, 2.52)	0.27 (0.26, 0.28)
Low-middle SDI	9.60 (9.45, 9.76)	12.32 (9.61, 15.03)	2.52 (2.50, 2.55)	0.67 (0.65, 0.69)	0.70 (0.52, 0.89)	0.48 (0.47, 0.49)	1.56 (1.52, 1.60)	1.65 (1.32, 1.99)	0.59 (0.57, 0.60)
Middle SDI	13.59 (13.16, 14.03)	16.72 (10.76, 22.68)	2.10 (2.05, 2.14)	0.61 (0.60, 0.63)	0.58 (0.42, 0.74)	-0.49 (-0.51, -0.47)	3.30 (3.24, 3.35)	3.40 (2.82, 3.99)	0.32 (0.30, 0.34)
High-middle SDI	16.12 (15.63, 16.60)	18.60 (14.06, 23.14)	1.45 (1.40, 1.49)	0.69 (0.67, 0.71)	0.58 (0.43, 0.72)	-1.81 (-1.84, -1.78)	3.10 (3.03, 3.16)	3.15 (2.35, 3.95)	0.16 (0.11, 0.21)
High SDI	16.15 (15.56, 16.74)	17.84 (13.30, 22.38)	1.00 (0.96, 1.04)	1.14 (1.10, 1.18)	1.03 (0.43, 1.63)	-0.99 (-0.99, -0.99)	8.52 (8.28, 8.76)	7.97 (5.97, 9.96)	-0.67 (-0.69, -0.65)
Regions
Western Sub-Saharan Africa	9.41 (9.19, 9.63)	10.44 (7.74, 13.14)	1.04 (1.04, 1.05)	0.78 (0.74, 0.83)	0.70 (0.38, 1.03)	-1.06 (-1.06, -1.06)	2.51 (2.42, 2.60)	2.57 (1.92, 3.21)	0.22 (0.21, 0.22)
Oceania	12.03 (11.35, 12.70)	13.18 (9.07, 17.29)	0.92 (0.91, 0.93)	1.66 (1.44, 1.89)	1.76 (0.89, 2.64)	0.60 (0.60, 0.60)	4.35 (3.86, 4.85)	4.23 (2.40, 6.07)	-0.28 (-0.30, -0.25)
Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa	6.96 (6.79, 7.14)	8.29 (5.95, 10.63)	1.76 (1.75, 1.77)	0.90 (0.86, 0.95)	0.87 (0.60, 1.14)	-0.33 (-0.35, -0.31)	3.76 (3.64, 3.89)	3.87 (2.92, 4.82)	0.27 (0.27, 0.28)
South Asia	7.28 (7.16, 7.41)	8.78 (6.55, 11.01)	1.89 (1.88, 1.90)	0.64 (0.62, 0.66)	0.68 (0.49, 0.87)	0.57 (0.57, 0.57)	1.31 (1.27, 1.34)	1.34 (1.05, 1.62)	0.23 (0.22, 0.23)
Central Sub-Saharan Africa	7.06 (6.83, 7.29)	8.33 (6.06, 10.60)	1.67 (1.66, 1.67)	1.00 (0.93, 1.07)	0.99 (0.64, 1.33)	-0.08 (-0.09, -0.07)	2.63 (2.48, 2.77)	2.75 (1.92, 3.57)	0.46 (0.46, 0.46)
Tropical Latin America	22.45 (20.73, 24.18)	32.97 (9.10, 56.84)	3.92 (3.87, 3.97)	1.05 (1.00, 1.09)	0.93 (0.63, 1.23)	-1.15 (-1.19, -1.11)	2.39 (2.31, 2.48)	2.47 (1.87, 3.08)	0.33 (0.30, 0.35)
Southern Sub-Saharan Africa	8.21 (7.93, 8.49)	9.58 (6.85, 12.30)	1.55 (1.54, 1.55)	0.78 (0.70, 0.86)	0.73 (0.16, 1.30)	-0.72 (-0.74, -0.69)	4.23 (4.04, 4.42)	4.18 (3.03, 5.33)	-0.13 (-0.13, -0.12)
Southeast Asia	13.04 (12.82, 13.25)	14.60 (12.02, 17.18)	1.14 (1.12, 1.16)	1.28 (1.24, 1.32)	1.26 (0.90, 1.63)	-0.16 (-0.18, -0.13)	8.95 (8.78, 9.12)	9.35 (7.65, 11.04)	0.43 (0.40, 0.47)
North Africa and Middle East	15.61 (15.37, 15.86)	18.31 (14.76, 21.85)	1.60 (1.60, 1.61)	0.65 (0.62, 0.67)	0.58 (0.42, 0.74)	-1.10 (-1.11, -1.09)	2.29 (2.22, 2.36)	2.25 (1.60, 2.91)	-0.17 (-0.19, -0.15)
Central Latin America	17.60 (17.00, 18.19)	25.29 (16.48, 34.10)	3.69 (3.66, 3.72)	0.54 (0.51, 0.57)	0.53 (0.34, 0.72)	-0.21 (-0.22, -0.19)	1.80 (1.73, 1.86)	1.84 (1.38, 2.30)	0.21 (0.20, 0.23)
Central Asia	6.45 (6.24, 6.66)	7.24 (5.41, 9.08)	1.16 (1.15, 1.18)	0.33 (0.30, 0.37)	0.32 (0.17, 0.47)	-0.37 (-0.40, -0.34)	0.31 (0.28, 0.35)	0.30 (0.17, 0.42)	-0.57 (-0.57, -0.57)
Caribbean	18.91 (18.39, 19.44)	20.78 (15.88, 25.67)	0.95 (0.93, 0.96)	0.89 (0.82, 0.96)	0.93 (0.59, 1.26)	0.39 (0.39, 0.40)	1.78 (1.67, 1.88)	1.75 (1.20, 2.31)	-0.12 (-0.12, -0.12)
Andean Latin America	13.84 (13.44, 14.25)	15.99 (12.14, 19.84)	1.45 (1.45, 1.46)	0.57 (0.53, 0.62)	0.51 (0.32, 0.71)	-1.09 (-1.10, -1.08)	2.68 (2.54, 2.82)	3.01 (2.09, 3.92)	1.14 (1.10, 1.19)
Southern Latin America	20.77 (20.25, 21.28)	24.31 (18.65, 29.97)	1.59 (1.57, 1.60)	1.83 (1.73, 1.93)	1.79 (1.08, 2.50)	-0.22 (-0.23, -0.21)	6.50 (6.28, 6.72)	6.72 (5.08, 8.36)	0.34 (0.26, 0.42)
Eastern Europe	15.55 (15.13, 15.98)	16.66 (9.97, 23.34)	0.69 (0.67, 0.71)	0.78 (0.71, 0.84)	0.70 (-0.06, 1.46)	-1.00 (-1.02, -0.97)	0.77 (0.74, 0.81)	0.75 (0.52, 0.97)	-0.38 (-0.39, -0.37)
East Asia	15.65 (14.83, 16.47)	18.82 (12.07, 25.57)	1.87 (1.81, 1.92)	0.28 (0.26, 0.29)	0.24 (0.05, 0.42)	-1.56 (-1.58, -1.55)	2.15 (2.10, 2.20)	2.23 (1.78, 2.69)	0.38 (0.35, 0.41)
Central Europe	12.23 (11.92, 12.53)	12.99 (9.63, 16.35)	0.61 (0.57, 0.64)	0.48 (0.45, 0.51)	0.44 (0.27, 0.62)	-0.74 (-0.76, -0.71)	1.16 (1.10, 1.22)	1.11 (0.66, 1.56)	-0.42 (-0.43, -0.41)
Australasia	16.31 (15.81, 16.81)	16.09 (12.18, 20.00)	-0.14 (-0.15, -0.12)	0.82 (0.75, 0.89)	0.77 (0.44, 1.09)	-0.69 (-0.69, -0.68)	7.97 (7.55, 8.39)	8.00 (3.17, 12.83)	0.03 (0.03, 0.04)
Western Europe	18.15 (17.61, 18.68)	19.55 (15.12, 23.98)	0.75 (0.70, 0.79)	1.25 (1.19, 1.30)	1.04 (0.42, 1.65)	-1.83 (-1.85, -1.80)	7.26 (7.12, 7.40)	7.38 (5.84, 8.93)	0.16 (0.16, 0.16)
High-income North America	14.83 (13.95, 15.72)	16.87 (10.86, 22.89)	1.30 (1.26, 1.34)	1.35 (1.26, 1.44)	1.35 (-0.21, 2.92)	-0.01 (-0.02, -0.01)	11.55 (10.95, 12.16)	9.92 (5.73, 14.12)	-1.52 (-1.54, -1.50)
High-income Asia Pacific	12.44 (11.95, 12.94)	13.06 (9.42, 16.69)	0.48 (0.44, 0.52)	0.73 (0.69, 0.76)	0.67 (0.29, 1.05)	-0.76 (-0.78, -0.74)	6.93 (6.71, 7.16)	6.56 (4.55, 8.58)	-0.54 (-0.55, -0.53)

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1990-2030年全球和区域感染性心内膜炎的疾病负担及其归因危险因素的趋势和预测

Global and Regional Trends and Projections of Infective Endocarditis-Associated Disease Burden and Attributable Risk Factors from 1990 to 2030

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